In ten years how many autonomous cars will be on the roads?


It's dangerous to give future predictions, we almost always under estimate how much progress technology will make.

So when Warren Buffett was asked his opinion on the uptake of autonomous cars, he was quick to say he might be wrong. But is still betting the uptake won't be as quick as we think.

“If I had to take the over and under 10 years from now on whether 10% of the cars on the road would be self-driving, I would take the under, but I could very easily be wrong,” Buffett said.

I think the key phrase is 'self-driving'. We are definitely already seeing advanced tech in cars. But at what stage will they be 'fully automated'?

It's becoming clear that AI is currently almost always 'narrow'. It does one task well, or it has a few 'narrow' functions that support each other but act independently. I believe it will be a while before we see true broad AI in the wild and even longer before its fully independent of human interaction.

My favourite term at the minute is a 'centaur', which is a narrow AI and human working together. The best examples of centaurs are computers and humans teaming up to play chess, but this is essentially what is happening with semi-autonomous cars.

Whats your thoughts on when we will see fully autonomous cars… and are you be happy to be a driving centaur in the interim?

Dave Ward